OBJECTIVE: The present review addresses the outcome of anorexia nervosa and whether it changed over the second half of the 20th century. METHOD: A total of 119 study series covering 5,590 patients suffering from anorexia nervosa that were published in the English and German literature were analyzed with regard to mortality, global outcome, and other psychiatric disorders at follow-up. RESULTS: There were large variations in the outcome parameters across studies. Mortality estimated on the basis of both crude and standardized rates was significantly high. Among the surviving patients, less than one-half recovered on average, whereas one-third improved, and 20% remained chronically ill. The normalization of the core symptoms, involving weight, menstruation, and eating behaviors, was slightly better when each symptom was analyzed in isolation. The presence of other psychiatric disorders at follow-up was very common. Longer duration of follow-up and, less strongly, younger age at onset of illness were associated with better outcome. There was no convincing evidence that the outcome of anorexia nervosa improved over the second half of the last century. Several prognostic features were isolated, but there is conflicting evidence. Most clearly, vomiting, bulimia, and purgative abuse, chronicity of illness, and obsessive-compulsive personality symptoms are unfavorable prognostic features. CONCLUSIONS: Anorexia nervosa did not lose its relatively poor prognosis in the 20th century. Advances in etiology and treatment may improve the course of patients with anorexia nervosa in the future.
Introduction Anorexia nervosa received its present name only in the late 19th century
(1). In the 20th century, critical analyses of epidemiological data showed that a true increase in the incidence and prevalence rates of anorexia nervosa over time was questionable
(2,
3). Currently, the etiology of anorexia nervosa is not fully understood, with present models emphasizing its multifactorial origin, coupled with multiple determinants and risk factors and their interactions within a developmental framework
(3).
Treatment of anorexia nervosa shifted in the second half of the 20th century from a purely medical approach that included reliance on neuroleptics in the 1950s and 1960s to a strong emphasis on individual psychotherapy
(4), taking into account both a developmental and a biological framework
(5) and the need for a multifaceted treatment approach
(6). Later, both behavioral and cognitive interventions were added to treatment programs
(7). In younger patients, the inclusion of family therapy has been advocated since the 1970s
(3,
8). At the end of the 20th century, medications played a role in the treatment of some patients with anorexia nervosa, but they have been rarely used as the exclusive mode of intervention
(9).
Selection criteria for the inclusion of studies in the present review were the following: 1) the study contained data on at least one of 15 outcome measures, and/or 2) the study contained data on any prognostic factor. Previous reviews of the outcome of anorexia nervosa by my associates and myself covered 45 studies (with 46 series of patients) published between 1953 and 1989
(10–
56) and 23 additional follow-up studies (with 24 series of patients) published between 1981 and 1989
(57–
80). Furthermore, Fichter and Quadflieg
(81) discussed 22 additional series of anorectic patients
(82–
99; unpublished 1991 paper presented by Halmi). In addition to these three reviews, and based on a systematic search with PUBMED, I identified an additional 27 series of patients in outcome studies published between 1993 and 1999
(100–
125). Thus, a total of 119 patient outcome series on anorexia nervosa were suitable for the present analysis. A preliminary and descriptive report on 108 patient outcome series published before 1996
(126) was used as a starting point for the present analysis. In addition to the 119 outcome series, there were five studies
(127–
131) that contained only data on prognostic factors suitable for the present review.
Study Characteristics
The 119 outcome series were composed of 5,590 patients (group size: mean=47.0, SD=30.8, range=6–151). There were considerable differences among the studies in design, group size, and methods. Few studies were prospectively organized. There was only one study based exclusively on male patients
(65). Diagnostic categories changed considerably over the period of the studies, with virtually no official criteria existing at the time of the first study, to the appearance of the first research criteria, by Feighner et al.
(132), and ending with more recent criteria offered by DSM-III, DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and ICD-10.
Because of the global descriptions of age at onset in the studies, precise age parameters could not be computed. For the present review, the following two age groups were formed: 1) patient series containing only younger adolescent patients, i.e., no older than 17 years at illness onset (N=37), and 2) series containing both younger and older patients, i.e., adolescents and adults (N=82).
Duration of follow-up was also quite difficult to compute from the original studies. Besides missing data, this problem was due to variations in the definition of the starting point or to the general practice of providing only ranges instead of precise group parameters. Similarly, data on the follow-up period, which ranged from less than 1 year to a maximum of 29 years, did not allow a more precise calculation of group parameters. Almost all groups were characterized by a marked heterogeneity regarding the duration of follow-up. Thus, the present review classified not the mean but the entire range of follow-up duration for arrangement of the studies into the following groups: 1) 20 series with follow-up after less than 4 years, 2) 45 series with follow-up from 4 to 10 years later, 3) seven series with follow-up after more than 10 years to 20 years, 4) four series with follow-up after more than 20 years, and 5) 42 series with variable follow-up periods that did not fit into the other group). Because of low frequencies, groups 3 and 4 had to be collapsed for data analysis; because of the heterogeneity of data, group 5 was excluded from the analyses on the impact of duration of follow-up. There was one study with no clear description of the length of follow-up.
There were a general lack of control conditions and a scarcity of precise information on treatment in these studies. Different treatment and psychotherapeutic approaches were used. The diversity of interventions precluded any definite evaluation of treatment effects.
Outcome Measures
The majority of outcome studies on anorexia nervosa reported crude mortality rates; a small number of studies presented standard mortality ratios. The crude mortality rates may have been slightly inflated; not all studies reported the cause of death, so causes other than the eating disorder might have led to subject death. In the surviving patients, outcome was most frequently described as one or more of the following three categories: 1) global, 2) normalization of the core symptom characteristics of anorexia nervosa, i.e., involving weight, menstruation, and eating behavior, and 3) psychiatric diagnoses other than eating disorders.
The most common scheme of global outcome classification in anorexia nervosa was the trichotomy between good, fair, and poor outcome. Although the studies varied regarding criteria, there was a general agreement that a good outcome stands for recovery from all essential clinical symptoms of anorexia nervosa, whereas a fair outcome represents improvement with some residual symptoms, and a poor outcome is synonymous with chronicity of the disorder. A substantial number of studies used the criteria of Morgan and Russell
(37), whereas other studies used more idiosyncratic definitions or did not report data for all three categories. The sum of the three categories did not necessarily round up to precisely 100%. In the present analysis, all reported data were included in calculations of the basic findings across studies. The original data that included mortality as a fourth outcome criterion in calculations of outcome percentages were adjusted into a three-category outcome, with mortality as a separate criterion. Thus, the potential inflation of crude mortality rates and the nonreported causes of death in some studies did not affect the outcome rates in the surviving patients.
In a substantial number of studies, psychiatric diagnoses in addition to eating disorders were mentioned. However, with the wide span of the dates of publication, a certain variation of criteria in the clinical assessment of psychiatric disorders other than the eating disorders needed to be accepted. The following eight psychiatric diagnoses were extracted from the outcome studies: 1) a broad category of affective disorders, 2) other neurotic disorders, including unspecified anxiety disorders and phobias, 3) obsessive-compulsive disorders, 4) schizophrenia, 5) histrionic personality disorder, 6) unspecified personality disorders, including borderline states, 7) obsessive-compulsive personality disorder, and 8) substance abuse disorders.
Statistical Analyses
A total of 15 outcome variables were calculated in percentages that were rounded to the nearest whole. In order to take into account the large variation of group sizes, weighted percentages were calculated by weighting each reported rate with the size of the study group. With the help of SPSS (SPSS, Chicago), data for all studies were converted into individual data for performance of statistical analyses. The following variables that may have influenced outcome were used in analyses of variance (ANOVAs): 1) dropout rate, 2) duration of follow-up, 3) age at illness onset, and 4) period effects. The ANOVAs were supplemented by post hoc comparisons and calculations of effect sizes by computing the percentage of variance (sum of squares between the groups divided by the total), according to the procedure introduced by Cohen
(133). According to Cohen, 1.0%–5.9% variance is small, 6.0%–13.9% is medium, and >14.0% is large.
Results
Effects of Dropout Rates
In a large number of studies, conclusions were jeopardized by a relatively high dropout rate at follow-up. The mean dropout rate for the 105 patient series with some relevant information was 12.3% (SD=14.7, range=0–77). An analysis of dropout effects revealed an inconsistent pattern, with no clear indication that studies with high dropout rates tended to have better results because of nonparticipating patients with poor outcomes (data available on request).
Mortality and Global Outcome
Two important issues were considered. First, the sizes of the patient groups differed significantly for the various outcome measures, because not all variables were assessed in all studies. Second, for each measure, there were rather wide standard deviations with extreme ranges across the studies, so that the means reflected only a central trend.
The mean crude mortality rate was 5.0% (
Table 1). In the surviving patients, on average, full recovery was found in only 46.9% of the patients, while 33.5% improved, and 20.8% developed a chronic course of the disorder. Outcome was slightly better for the core symptoms, with normalization of weight occurring in 59.6% of the patients, normalization of menstruation in 57.0%, and normalization of eating behavior in 46.8%. However, these slightly higher rates of normalization of the core symptoms, compared to the global outcome rating, may be largely due to the smaller total group sizes. Nevertheless, this gap remained, even after adaptation for group size (when only the studies that reported both global outcome ratings and normalization of the core symptoms were considered).

Other Psychiatric Disorders
The findings presented in
Table 1 show that at follow-up a large proportion of anorectic patients suffered from additional psychiatric disorders. Frequent diagnoses at follow-up were neurotic disorders, including anxiety disorders and phobias, affective disorders, substance use disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and unspecified personality disorders, including borderline states. A few studies reported a high rate of obsessive-compulsive personality disorder and a less pronounced rate of histrionic personality disorder. Schizophrenia was only rarely observed at follow-up.
Effect Variables
It was possible to control for three major factors that might have affected outcome. Their influence is reported only for mortality and the global outcome of the eating disorder in order to avoid conclusions that might be biased due to incomplete data or a markedly smaller group size for other outcome variables. Furthermore, only 61 studies that reported three global outcome categories (recovery, improvement, and chronicity) were considered for these analyses.
The first factor tested was duration of follow-up. Findings are shown in
Table 2. All four outcome parameters were significantly affected by duration of follow-up, and all four effect sizes were large. With increasing duration of follow-up, mortality rates also increased. In the surviving patients, there was a strong tendency toward recovery with increasing duration of follow-up. The rate of recovery increased, while the rates of improvement and chronicity declined. With the exception of the test on improvement rates in groups 1 and 2, all post hoc tests indicated that group differences were significant. Given the significance of the follow-up duration, this variable was controlled in two-way ANOVAs in the additional analyses on the impact of age at onset of illness and the effects of period.

When I compared the group of patie

nts with adolescent onset and the group with a much wider age range at onset of illness, there was a significantly lower mortality rate in the group with the younger patients, as shown in
Table 3. The rates of recovery, improvement, and chro
nicity were more favorable in the group with the younger patients. However, in each instance, in addition to duration of follow-up, the interactions between duration of follow-up and each outcome variable were significant, as shown in
Figure 1.
The interaction effects showed that the differences between the subgroups with different onsets of illness were wider or narrower or even inverted for the four outcome measures, depending on the duration of follow-up. A comparison of the two effect sizes, as shown in
Table 3, indicates that the effect of age at onset was stronger for mortality, whereas the effect of duration of follow-up was stronger for recovery, improvement, and chronicity.
The third effect tested was a potential period effect or time trend. The studies were divided into large groups, as follows: 1) studies from 1950 to 1979, 2) studies from 1980 to 1989, and 3) studies from 1990 to 1999. Mortality showed a complex pattern associated with time trends (
Table 4). It was absent both for very short and very extended study courses in the early studies (with only one study each), from 1950 through 1979, whereas it increased linearly in the studies from 1980 to 1989 and from 1990 to 1999, with the highest rate for the most extended studies reported for 1980–1989.

There were few differences between the studies for 1980–1989 and the studies for 1990–1999 on the other outcome measures—recovery, improvement, and chronicity—whereas the studies from 1950 to 1979 primarily stood out because of high recovery rates and low rates of improvement and chronicity during short-term courses For all four outcome measures, the effect sizes for duration of follow-up were markedly stronger than for time period.

Received May 18, 2001; revision received Oct. 30, 2001; accepted Jan. 28, 2002. From the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, University of Zurich. Address reprint requests to Dr. Steinhausen, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Neumünsterallee 9, Postfach, CH-8032 Zurich, Switzerland; steinh@kjpd.unizh.ch '//-->(e-mail). The author thanks C. Winkler Metzke for assistance with data analysis.
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